FIFA World Cup 2026.

The Tournament Favourites Index moves with the rhythm of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. After every match, the index ticks up when favourites win as expected, and ticks down when upsets strike, giving clients a single number to follow.

Each match's contribution is calculated from two inputs the market has already priced in: the head-to-head prices and the point spread at kick-off. The closing prices set the size of the move. A short-priced favourite getting the job done barely nudges the index, while a heavy favourite losing sends it sharply lower. The spread then acts as a multiplier, rewarding genuine dominance and penalising narrow, unconvincing wins.

The result is a transparent, rules-based index that reflects how the tournament actually played out versus how the market expected it to, opening up new ways for clients to take a view across a matchday, a group, or the whole tournament.